The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning, Peter Zeihan

 

The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning:  Mapping the collapse of globalization by Peter Zeihan

Started: 4/19/2023
Completed: 4/25/2023
Recommendation: Mild Recommendation
Recommended By: My parents

Review:

The vast majority of this book tests how bad things could be if other things happen.  Zeihan argues that these things have basically already happened or are inevitable.  Here is the causal chain:

GIVEN:
    Mass consumption economies depend on consumers
WHEN:
    The population of the world is aging out of high consumerism, and
    Lack of consumers cause contraction of capital, and
    The United States will not be able to afford "Pax Americana" on the high seas
    Nation states will turn to piracy on the high seas disrupting global trade
THEN:
    Really bad things happen

The causal chain is really discussed in the section, "The End of More."

There are a bunch of dependencies and, as Zeihan acknowledges, the Russian attack on Ukraine changes the dynamics a bit (we can see mass starvation caused by disruption of global trade or not).